are we a lost cause?

Early next year, leaders from around the world are meeting to reevaluate and ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Many had the chance to put this into place and honor it many years ago, and the fear now is that is simply too late.

More and more data is being released that we are in a much more severe crisis than originally thought and we are going to get much, much worse before we get better.

Kevin Anderson, from Exeter University, is one scientist that is making a very difficult presentation to his peers: despite the political rhetoric, the scientific warnings, the media headlines and the corporate promises, he would say, carbon emissions were soaring way out of control – far above even the bleak scenarios considered by last year’s report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Stern review. The battle against dangerous climate change had been lost, and the world needed to prepare for things to get very, very bad.

Many numbers are thrown around that may not make much sense: 280, 350, 450, 650. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, the worlds CO2 level was at 280 parts per million. We are currently at 386ppm by most estimates. Why does this matter and what does it mean? The reason that carbon dioxide is considered the most important greenhouse gas is because it absorbs more infrared radiation on a per molecule basis than any other molecule in our atmosphere. So, as we put more in the air, through burning fossil fuels, we are putting a molecule into the air that traps and holds onto heat more than any other. Where once the presence of CO2 created a nice atmosphere for our species to flourish, because we were trapping an appropriate amount of heat from the sun, we are now creating an atmosphere in which we are over-heating. The more CO2, the more trapped heat. And with more heat comes the accumulation of the effects of having that heat present; warming temperatures leading to melting ice leading to raising sea levels, etc., etc. (It should also be noted that at a certain point, somewhere around 5% total CO2 in the atmosphere, humans are greatly impaired by our bodies ability to process the molecule.)

Now, the other aspect of CO2 that must be noted is its longevity in the atmosphere. CO2 has a half life on 10 years; or, if I put 100ppm in a container it takes 10 years for it to get to 50ppm and 20 years for it to be gone. Also, there is a cumulative affect to CO2. If I have that same container of 100pp and I add 50ppm one year and another 50ppm the next, I know have just shy of 200ppm. Even though two years have gone by, the removal of CO2 is at a much slower pace then the addition. (I’m sorry if this is so elementary, but it is really important for everyone to really understand what all these scientists have talked about). Going back to the topic, what we put into the atmosphere as CO2 in 1978 has finally gone as of today. We still have 1979 pollution in our air. Which means in 2028, we will have today’s CO2 still in the air. And every year, it accumulates on itself. What we do today, literally, affects the future, because it will still be around.

I hope that makes sense because I am going to go back to the latest research on this….

Many scientists feel that the global community needs to put a cap on allowable emissions so that our CO2 concentration never gets to 450ppm. What many are saying now is that is absolutely impossible because what we are putting into the atmosphere today, may already have us at that goal, when you consider the cumulative effect. The number that scientists have decided on (450ppm) is proportional to a 2C increase in temperature, which they feel is the highest we can go for a sustainable planet. The estimates now are that we may be able to cap at 650ppm, which is a 4C increase in temperature, which is an unsustainable level.

And even putting a cap on these emissions is a political hot topic when discussing compromise: Many small island states are predicted to be swamped by rising seas with global warming triggered by carbon levels as low as 400ppm. “It’s really difficult for countries to sign up to something that loses them half their territory. It’s not going to work.”

On top of that there is very early research that indicates that the ocean’s have stopped absorbing CO2. They have been a huge work horse in keeping CO2 levels in check. If they aren’t doing their job, we have no idea what that will translate too, regarding CO2 levels.

OK. So, this is all pretty bleak and literally makes you want to throw in the towel, take a 30 minute shower, turn on the heat, and use hair spray again. I know. I battle it everyday.

I have known the science for a while and have feared a negative outcome no matter what I might do. A while ago I was asked why I keep trying to educate people about this and if I felt it was a lost cause. The only way I could answer was “I don’t know, but if I had to, I was going to die trying.”

There are two interesting websites to go to for education on CO2. I recommend HERE, which is an article about what scientists are discovering. And HERE, which is a lesson in CO2.