news from the north, 4/9/09

Three interesting pieces that I wanted to highlight about news coming from the Arctic regions

Arctic Melting is a Threat to Humanity, via The New Scientist

 

Discussions about the consequences of the vanishing ice usually focus either on the opening up of new frontiers for shipping and mineral exploitation, or on the plight of polar bears, which rely on sea ice for hunting. The bigger picture has got much less attention: a warmer Arctic will change the entire planet, and some of the potential consequences are nothing short of catastrophic.

Changes in ocean currents, for instance, could disrupt the Asian monsoon, and nearly two billion people rely on those rains to grow their food. As if that wasn’t bad enough, it is also possible that positive feedback from the release of methane from melting permafrost could lead to runaway warming.

US sues BP unit over Alaska oil spills, via ENN

 

The complaint, filed in U.S. District Court in Anchorage, accuses BPXA of illegally discharging more than 200,000 gallons of crude oil from its pipelines in Prudhoe Bay onto the North Slope of Alaska during two major oil spills in the spring and summer of 2006.

The complaint also alleges that BPXA failed to prepare and implement adequate spill prevention measures required under the Clean Water Act.

Ice-free Arctic Ocean Possible In 30 Years, Not 90 As Previously Estimated, via ENN

 

 

While the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange in 2007 assessed what might happen in the Arctic in the future based on results from more than a dozen global climate models, two researchers reasoned that dramatic declines in the extent of ice at the end of summer in 2007 and 2008 called for a different approach.

Out of the 23 models now available, the new projections are based on the six most suited for assessing sea ice, according to Muyin Wang, a University of Washington climate scientist with the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean based at the UW, and James Overland, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle. 

in the news

Here are some important news items…

Arctic Sea Ice Underestimated for Weeks Due to Faulty Sensor, via Bloomberg

A glitch in satellite sensors caused scientists to underestimate the extent of Arctic sea ice by 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles), a California- size area, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said.  The recent error doesn’t change findings that Arctic ice is retreating, the NSIDC said. The center said real-time data on sea ice is always less reliable than archived numbers because full checks haven’t yet been carried out. Historical data is checked across other sources, it said.

MIT Group Increases Global Warming Projections, via Washington Post

 

New research from MIT scientists shows that in the absence of stringent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, 21st century climate change may be far more significant than some previous climate assessments had indicated.

The new findings, released this month by MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, showed significantly increased odds that by the end of the century warming would be on the high end of the scale for a so-called “no policy scenario” as compared with similar studies completed just six years ago. The main culprits: the cycling of heat and carbon dioxide in the climate system are now better understood and projections of future greenhouse gas emissions have increased.

The results also showed that even if nations were to act quickly to reduce emissions, it is more likely that warming would be greater than previous studies had shown. However, the increase in projected temperatures under the “policy scenario” was not as large as for the no policy scenario.

Climate change timetable slips as Obama backtracks on 2008 deadline, via Guardian UK

 

Barack Obama has been forced to slow down a key green objective of his presidency: early legislation to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming.

Officials now concede that Congress is unlikely to pass such legislation by the end of 2009, a delay that could hurt efforts to reach a global treaty at the climate change conference in Copenhagen this December. It also frustrates hopes that last week’s huge infusion of green investment in the $787 bn economic rescue plan would give momentum to efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Presidential staff say America remains determined to play a leadership role at the climate talks in Copenhagen, but downplay prospects of taking steps to curb its own carbon emissions first.

santa’s foreclosure

The arctic is melting faster than anyone expected. And, while scientists agree that summer ice will disappear, they cannot agree on when that will happen.

US researchers claim to have found evidence that accelerated melting has crossed a “tipping point” from which there is no going back.

The amount of summer ice at the North Pole has steadily declined since 1979, according to satellite images. Computer models predict that this trend will continue, leaving the Arctic completely ice-free during the summers as early as 2030.

Of the many issues that will arise with arctic melting, the one with the most concern is the subsequent release of methane gas. The problem at hand: methane has 21 times the warming power of carbon dioxide. And, while it has a half life that is shorter than CO2, the damage may well be greater. Because of its ability to trap heat, it has a greater impact for a small amount of time, compared to CO2′s lesser impact over a large amount of time.

In any case, the arctic melting cannot be good. Due to current conditions in the world, we have had a 150% increase in methane in the last 200 years and accounts for 20% of the mixed greenhouse gases.

Article is HERE. You can find out more information about methane, HERE.

the not so good news

Today saw the release of many reports with data indicating that we are in a much worse predicament than expected. There is so much to write on, I thought it best to simply highlight the various articles.

Coral Reef Loss Suggests Global Extinction Event

The latest global coral reef assessment estimates that 19 percent of the world’s coral reefs are dead. Their major threats include warming sea-surface temperatures and expanding seawater acidification.

Zooxanthellae, the tiny organisms that give coral reefs their vibrant colors, are emigrating from their hosts in massive numbers as oceans heat up, killing themselves and the coral they leave behind – a process known as coral bleaching.

The demise of coral reefs, however, affects the entire ocean ecosystem – a quarter of all marine fish species reside in the reefs, according to The Nature Conservancy. In addition, IUCN estimates that 500 million people depend on coral reefs for their livelihoods.

Obama’s Global Warming Challenge: It’s A Ticking Time Bomb

“We’re out of time,” Stanford University biologist Terry Root said. “Things are going extinct.”

U.S. emissions have increased by 20 percent since 1992. China has more than doubled its carbon dioxide pollution in that time. World carbon dioxide emissions have grown faster than scientists’ worst-case scenarios. Methane, the next most potent greenhouse gas, suddenly is on the rise again and scientists fear that vast amounts of the trapped gas will escape from thawing Arctic permafrost.

The amount of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has already pushed past what some scientists say is the safe level.

Complicating everything is the worldwide financial meltdown. Frank Maisano, a Washington energy specialist and spokesman who represents coal-fired utilities and refineries, sees the poor economy as “a huge factor” that could stop everything. That’s because global warming efforts are aimed at restricting coal power, which is cheap. That would likely mean higher utility bills and more damage to ailing economies that depend on coal production, he said.

CLIMATE CHANGE: “Things Happen Much Faster in the Arctic”

In just a few summers from now, the Arctic Ocean will lose its protective cover of ice for the first time in a million years, according to some experts attending the International Arctic Change conference here.

A summer ice-free Arctic wasn’t due for another 50 to 70 years under the worst-case climate change scenarios examined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Such a “dramatic and serious loss of sea ice will affect everyone on the planet,” Barber told IPS.

brrrrr, it’s warm up here

The year 2007 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic.

Click HERE for more about that.

“And although the Arctic is warming overall, its effects vary from place to place. The Bering Sea, for example, is in a cooling spell, and an unusually severe winter has bulked up Alaska’s glaciers.

One thing is clear, all of this warming cannot be undone quickly.

“There has been a massive loss of sea ice starting in the 1990s,” said one of the authors, James Overland, an “In 2008, we’ve lost so much multi-year old ice, it’s very difficult for the ice cover to go back to where it was 20 years ago.”

whoever smelt it…

Uh-ohhhhhh. This smells bad….

A new report, exclusive the The Independent, shows an increase of methane due to the lack of polar ice caps. Read the article HERE.