A High-Stakes Political Chess Match is Underway: Will Andy Burnham's Ambitions Be Blocked? The clock is ticking for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, with a crucial deadline looming this Saturday at 17:00 GMT to decide if he'll throw his hat into the ring for the Gorton and Denton by-election. This isn't just about filling a parliamentary seat; it's about a potential power play that could see Burnham challenging Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour Party leadership. But here's where it gets tricky...
To even be considered, Burnham, a directly-elected mayor, needs a green light from Labour's powerful National Executive Committee (NEC). And whispers suggest that some of Sir Keir's allies on the committee are looking to block his candidacy. This move, if it happens, could certainly ruffle the feathers of Labour MPs who are already backing Burnham.
Burnham himself has been tight-lipped, stating on Thursday that he's "focused" on his mayoral duties and urging people not to "rush to conclusions." However, his stance might be influenced by figures like Deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell, who, while sitting on the NEC, hinted at her support by emphasizing the need for "the very best candidate" to help Labour win. She described Burnham as "an incredibly popular politician" and acknowledged he'd have to "make up his own mind." Yet, she also stressed the importance of Labour members rallying behind Keir Starmer and avoiding internal squabbles.
Adding to the mix, London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan voiced his opinion, stating, "If Andy Burnham wants to be a member of Parliament, Andy Burnham should be allowed to be a member of Parliament." He believes that "the best teams having all the talent playing for them."
This entire situation is fueled by speculation that Sir Keir might face a leadership challenge following the anticipated difficult May elections for Labour in Wales, Scotland, and various English local councils. But this is the part most people miss: For Burnham to even enter a leadership race, he must be a Member of Parliament (MP).
Adding another layer to this unfolding drama, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner is expected to publicly support Burnham at a Labour north west regional conference, urging the NEC not to obstruct his application. Despite her resignation from government last year, Rayner retains significant influence among backbench MPs and party members.
Now, for the controversial part: Several Labour sources suggest the NEC might block Burnham's bid, citing the significant cost of triggering a new mayoral election in Greater Manchester – a hefty sum of around £4.7 million, as evidenced by the last mayoral election. Furthermore, there's a possibility the NEC could push for an all-women shortlist for the by-election, given the current male majority among Labour MPs. This raises the question: Is this about genuine party concerns, or a strategic move to sideline a potential rival?
The final decision won't be made by the entire committee but by 10 NEC officers, including Sir Keir Starmer, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Lucy Powell, and party chair Ellie Reeves, along with representatives from the GMB and USDAW trade unions. They are expected to inform Burnham of their decision on Sunday, with the final deadline for all candidate applications being midnight on Sunday.
The Gorton and Denton constituency has historically been a safe Labour seat, with the party securing 18,000 votes in the last election. Reform UK came in second with 5,000 votes, narrowly ahead of the Green Party.
Labour MPs are clearly divided. John McDonnell, MP for Hayes and Harlington and former shadow chancellor, took to X (formerly Twitter) to express his strong disapproval, warning that blocking Burnham would "cause immense damage both to Keir and therefore the party." He criticized Sir Keir's reliance on "a small group of relatively inexperienced advisers" who are "cut off from the emotions and beliefs of our rank and file party supporters." He boldly stated, "I want to divide Keir from these incompetent, self-interested control freaks because they risk bringing down the party."
Similarly, Cat Smith, MP for Lancaster and Wyre, commented, "I think it would be disappointing if No 10 were to block strong candidates from being able to be considered by the party members in Gorton and Denton." Graham Stringer, MP for Blackley and Middleton South, offered a different perspective, expressing concern about leaving the door open for Reform UK to contest the Greater Manchester mayoralty and labeling the by-election as "very high-risk" for any candidate representing a sitting government.
What do you think? Should Andy Burnham be allowed to stand, regardless of the potential leadership implications? Or are the concerns about party resources and strategic candidate selection valid? Share your thoughts in the comments below – we'd love to hear your take on this intricate political maneuver!
